How the SAGs Predict Oscar Winners

The Screen Actor Guild Awards gets the most attention out of all the guild awards because, well, it’s about the actors getting dressed up again. Still, it’s certainly an accurate barometer for who will win the Oscar — and this year, I do believe all the SAG winners have Oscar gold in their sights, which in a way, sort of takes the fun out of things when everyone is a shoo-in.

Here are the film winners:

MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
*Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

And the winner is … Christophe Waltz. The first shoo-in for an Oscar, but let’s hope Waltz bones up on his acceptance speech skills before the Academy Awards because he makes me a little uncomfortable when he gets up there to collect the award. Call Robert Downey Jr.!

FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Diane Kruger, “Inglourious Basterds”
*Mo’nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

And the winner is … Mo’Nique. Another sure thing for the Oscar. Can’t see how anyone can beat her. I did like how she thanked some of the smaller named actors in the film Precious, but you know once she wins the Oscar, she’s going to speak even more deliberately.

MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
*Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

And the winner is … Jeff Bridges. Yep, that pretty much seals it for him as well. I’m just wondering if he’ll receive yet another standing ovation when he gets the Oscar. I mean, honestly, that’s where it really counts.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
*Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”

And the winner is … Sandra Bullock. Rounding out the future Oscar winning list, at least you know ole Sandy will make us laugh with her acceptance speech.

CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
*”Inglourious Basterds”
“Nine”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

And the winner is … The cast of Inglourious Basterds. Now THIS race, the Best Picture race, is not completely shewn up quite yet. There’s still a little bit of guesswork involved since Avatar missed its chance to be nominated for a SAG. It’s not the kind of film you honor for acting. No indeed. So, Basterds still might have a chance to win it. We’ll see.

Here are the TV winners:

MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Simon Baker, “The Mentalist”
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
*Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Hugh Laurie, “House”

And the winner is … Yay! Michael C. Hall. I thought this last season of Dexter was, frankly, amazing. And thanking the writers is a popular thing to do at the SAGs this year. Nice. They should be thanked.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Patricia Arquette, “Medium”
Glenn Close, “Damages”
Mariska Hargitay, “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit”
Holly Hunter, “Saving Grace”
*Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”

And the winner is … Julianna Marguiles. I guess I’m going to have to start watching this show now.

MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
*Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Steve Carell, “The Office”
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Tony Shalhoub, “Monk”
Charlie Sheen, “Two and a Half Men”

And the winner is … Alec Baldwin, natch. Come on, enough is enough – let some other funny TV guy win now.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, “Samantha Who?”
Toni Collette, “United States of Tara”
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
*Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “The New Adventures of Old Christine”

And the winner is … Tina Fey? Really? Over Toni Collette or even Edie Falco? I wonder if 30 Rock has special deal with the Screen Actors Guild.

ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
“The Closer”
“Dexter”
“The Good Wife”
*”Mad Men”
“True Blood”

And the winner is … Oy, Mad Men AGAIN. I’m starting hold a grudge here. But most likely, I’ll catch the show later when it’s in re-runs and fall in love with it.

ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES
“30 Rock”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
*”Glee”
“Modern Family”
“The Office”

And the winner is … The cast of Glee – but besides Jane Lynch, isn’t this really a show about singing and dancing?

FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Joan Allen, “Georgia O’Keeffe”
*Drew Barrymore, “Grey Gardens”
Ruby Dee, “America”
Jessica Lange, “Grey Gardens”
Sigourney Weaver, “Prayers for Bobby”

And the winner is …  Drew Barrymore. She, too, needs to learn how to give acceptance speeches from Robert Downey Jr. What a spaz she is. Thank goodness this is the last time we’ll have to hear from her.

MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
*Kevin Bacon, “Taking Chance”
Cuba Gooding, Jr., “Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story”
Jeremy Irons, “Georgia O’Keeffe”
Kevin Kline, “Great Performances: Cyrano De Bergerac”
Tom Wilkinson, “A Number”

And the winner is … Kevin Bacon. Good for him, he deserves a little recognition.

Overall, I really felt like I just watched the Golden Globes again – all the same winners, except for Tina Fey.

Oh, and how about that Betty White, who won the SAG Lifetime Achievement award. Is she some class act or what? And she’s 88! I hope I have the same energy and quick wit as she does when I reach that age.